Higher Temperatures Raise intimate Violence Risk for Women

Higher Temperatures Raise Intimate Partner Violence Risk Among Women

Key Takeaways

Higher temperatures raised intimate partner violence risk across sub-Saharan Africa.
Temperature anomalies corresponded with 1.74 percentage-point higher probability of any IPV.
Rural women experienced approximately 2.4 percentage-point higher probability of any IPV.
Temperature anomalies increased emotional, less severe, and severe physical IPV.

Climate change does not affect households only through droughts, floods, food insecurity, or lost income. A less visible possibility is that unusual heat may alter the conditions in which violence occurs inside intimate relationships. New research across sub-Saharan Africa finds that temperature anomalies are associated with a higher likelihood of intimate partner violence, while also showing that the burden is not distributed evenly across women. The strongest temperature-related effects appeared among rural women and those with lower levels of education, pointing to the role that social and economic vulnerability may play alongside the climate hazard itself.

A warmer month does not automatically mean a woman will experience intimate partner violence. But when temperatures rise above what is normally expected for a particular place and time, the probability of reported violence increases, according to a new analysis covering 31 countries in sub-Saharan Africa.

The study, published in Global Environmental Change, examined more than 322,000 observations from 61 Demographic and Health Surveys conducted between 2003 and 2024. The researchers focused on women aged 15–49 and linked their reported experiences of Intimate Partner Violence (IPV) with local temperature and socioeconomic conditions.

What the researchers examined

The researchers were interested in whether unusually high temperatures were associated with changes in reported IPV, rather than simply comparing hotter countries with cooler ones. To do this, they calculated temperature anomalies based on how much the monthly mean temperature differed from the preceding 30-year local average. They then used a rolling 12-month temperature anomaly to correspond with the period covered by the IPV questions in the surveys.

The analysis considered several forms of IPV, including emotional violence, less severe physical violence, severe physical violence, and sexual violence. It also examined a combined measure covering any IPV. The statistical models incorporated fixed effects and socioeconomic factors, allowing the researchers to account for differences across locations and periods that could otherwise complicate the relationship between temperature and violence.

Higher temperatures were linked to more reported IPV

Across the full sample, a temperature anomaly of one standard deviation was associated with an approximately 1.74 percentage-point increase in the probability of reported any IPV. The increase was not limited to one form of violence. Higher temperature anomalies were significantly associated with emotional IPV, less severe physical IPV, and severe physical IPV. The association with sexual IPV, however, was not statistically significant. That distinction matters because the findings do not indicate that every form of IPV responds in the same way to temperature.

The study also found that several socioeconomic characteristics were associated with lower reported IPV. Women with secondary or higher education, older women, women whose partners had at least secondary education, and women from wealthier households generally reported lower levels of IPV. Higher regional GDP was also associated with lower IPV. These patterns suggest that temperature does not operate independently of social and economic circumstances.

Rural women showed stronger associations

The relationship between temperature anomalies and IPV was substantially stronger among rural women. For rural respondents, a one-standard-deviation temperature anomaly was associated with an approximately 2.4 percentage-point increase in the probability of any IPV. The corresponding estimate for urban women was not statistically significant.

Education also appeared to modify the relationship. Among women with primary education or less, a temperature anomaly was associated with an approximately 2.1 percentage-point increase in emotional IPV. This association was significantly smaller among women with secondary or higher education.

The researchers also found geographic variation. Stronger effects were observed among rural women with lower education in parts of Central, Eastern, and Southern Africa, particularly across many age groups. In contrast, estimates for urban populations and much of Western Africa were more often not statistically significant. There was no consistent pattern indicating that the association was concentrated in one particular age group.

The study discusses several possible pathways through which temperature could be related to IPV. Heat may affect aggression or emotional regulation directly, while higher temperatures could also contribute indirectly through household stress, economic pressures, disruptions to services, or other climate-related pressures. These mechanisms remain possible explanations rather than pathways established by the study itself.

What the projections show through 2050

The researchers also used the estimated relationships to examine how IPV could change under three combinations of socioeconomic and climate scenarios through 2050: SSP1-RCP2.6, SSP2-RCP4.5, and SSP3-RCP7.0. The projections indicate that the absolute number of women experiencing IPV is expected to increase across the scenarios, driven largely by population growth. The projected share of women experiencing IPV, however, follows a different pattern. Under SSP1 and SSP2, the proportion affected is projected to decline, while under SSP3 it remains relatively stable. The SSP3 scenario also combines less favorable socioeconomic conditions, including a larger share of younger and less-educated women.

The researchers separately examined a scenario in which there is no further adaptation to warming, using the 1990–2019 period as the fixed temperature baseline. Under this assumption, projected temperature anomalies contribute to higher IPV prevalence across all three scenarios. The projected contribution is smaller under SSP1 and SSP2 and larger under SSP3.

These projections should not be interpreted as precise forecasts of how many women will experience IPV in 2050. They depend on assumptions about future population growth, urbanization, socioeconomic development, temperature trajectories, relationships between socioeconomic conditions and IPV, and adaptation to warming. The study also has an important limitation in interpreting the observed association. The IPV surveys ask women about experiences during the previous 12 months, meaning the data cannot establish the exact timing of a violent episode relative to a particular temperature anomaly. IPV itself can also be underreported, even in confidential surveys.

As a result, the study identifies a population-level relationship between temperature anomalies and reported IPV but does not establish that unusually high temperatures directly cause individual episodes of violence. What the research does show is that temperature-related differences in reported IPV are detectable across a very large sample, and that the association is particularly pronounced among rural women and women with lower educational attainment. As climate change alters temperature patterns, the findings suggest that intimate partner violence may need to be considered alongside other social consequences of climate-related stress, especially in populations already facing socioeconomic vulnerability.

FAQs on Temperature Anomalies and Intimate Partner Violence

Q: Does the study prove that heat causes intimate partner violence?
A: No. The study uses observational survey data and identifies an association between temperature anomalies and reported IPV. It cannot establish that a particular temperature increase directly caused an individual episode of violence.

Q: Which forms of IPV were associated with temperature anomalies?
A: Higher temperature anomalies were significantly associated with emotional IPV, less severe physical IPV, and severe physical IPV. The association with sexual IPV was not statistically significant.

Q: Who appeared most vulnerable to the temperature-IPV association?
A: The strongest associations were observed among rural women, particularly those with lower levels of education. The study also found substantial geographic variation.

Q: Will climate change necessarily increase IPV prevalence everywhere?
A: Not necessarily. The projections depend on socioeconomic development, population structure, future temperatures, and adaptation. The study found different projected patterns across scenarios and regions.

Q: What does the study suggest for policy?
A: The findings suggest that climate adaptation and social protection efforts may need to account for potential effects of heat and climate-related stress on interpersonal violence, particularly among socially and economically vulnerable populations.

References

Disclaimer:
Some aspects of the preparation of this content may be assisted by artificial intelligence or automated technologies and are subject to human editorial review and source verification. Readers are encouraged to consult the original research and primary sources for complete context. External links are provided for convenience, and TheHonores does not control or endorse their content. Relevant conflicts of interest, funding, sponsorship, or other disclosures are identified where applicable. This content is for informational purposes only and is not professional or medical advice. Images are for illustrative or representational purposes unless otherwise stated.